Swine Flu Pandemic?...

zeitgeist

PF Fiend
Oct 8, 2008
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To be fair, it's not yet officially being called an epidemic, much less a pandemic.

Yet.

I think it's fair to put 'pandemic' in the title posed as a question since it has spread further and faster than they can contain it:

Reuters AlertNet - CDC says too late to contain U.S. flu outbreak
WASHINGTON, April 24 (Reuters) - The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Friday it was too late to contain the swine flu outbreak in the United States.

CDC acting director Dr. Richard Besser told reporters in a telephone briefing it was likely too late to try to contain the outbreak, by vaccinating, treating or isolating people.

"There are things that we see that suggest that containment is not very likely," he said.

He said the U.S. cases and Mexican cases are likely the same virus. "So far the genetic elements that we have looked at are the same." But Besser said it was unclear why the virus was causing so many deaths in deaths in Mexico and such mild disease in the United States.
It has infected 1,324 people and killed 81 in Mexico, and illnesses have been reported so far in Texas, California, Kansas, New York and New Zealand. <URL url="http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gzz357patY4-QaJFvo9O95zMM_EQD97Q748G1">Mexico has more or less closed their capital city for business.


And to top things off, CDC has identified the virus as the same strain as the one that caused the 1918 pandemic, the H1N1 Strain)but with a few new genetic twists so that no one is immune.

Descriptions coming out of Mexico City are chillingly similar to the accounts I've read of NYC survivors of the 1918 virus:

Churches stood empty Sunday in heavily Roman Catholic Mexico City after services were canceled, and health workers screened airports and bus stations for people sickened by a new strain of swine flu that experts fear could become a global epidemic.
...
The first death was in southern Oaxaca state on April 13, but Mexico didn't send the first of 14 mucous samples to the CDC until April 18, around the same time it dispatched health teams to hospitals looking for patients with severe flu or pnuemonia-like symptoms.

Those teams noticed something strange: The flu was killing people aged 20 to 40. Flu victims are usually either infants or the elderly. The Spanish flu pandemic, which killed at least 40 million people worldwide in 1918-19, also first struck otherwise healthy young adults.
All right. No one breathe on my baby. :huh:

Hell, what am I saying? If it's killing otherwise healthy folks between 20 and 40. No one breathe on me! :shocked:


This is one we are going to need to keep an eye on, not just as parents.
 

zeitgeist

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Oct 8, 2008
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Well, until a few minutes ago the last article I'd read about this said that it hadn't reached Europe. Nope: 3 possible cases in Spain now.

They're also calling this "...a mixture of various swine, bird and human viruses, (posing) the biggest risk of a large-scale pandemic since avian flu surfaced in 1997..." Yeah, and that wasn't airborne-contagious human-to-human. :sad:
 

Xero

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Mar 20, 2008
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WOAH. That's scary, zeit. You've really got me worried. I'll have to look into that some more. That's... really freaky. :(
 

ElliottCarasDad

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Sep 10, 2008
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"Regular" flu kills about 40-50,000 people in the US and about half a million worldwide every year. The real problem with H1N1 is there is no vaccine for it.
 

fallon

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Jul 19, 2007
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as it is the flu vax is hit or miss, they guess at which strain will hit the hardest that yr and hope the rest stay dorment
 

SusanR68

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Apr 26, 2009
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This is scary! As the cases grow, I'm afraid that this strain is the pandemic that so many have feared. While we haven't had to deal with something like this since 1957 (?), let's just hope our government and officials have properly planned for this scenario.
 

IADad

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Feb 23, 2009
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ElliottCarasDad said:
"Regular" flu kills about 40-50,000 people in the US and about half a million worldwide every year. The real problem with H1N1 is there is no vaccine for it.

Good point I heard Dr Sanjay Gupta say that 36,000 had died last year from "seasonal Flu" so keep thi sin a little perspective. I also heard some mention that while flu's are generally transmitted airborne, this flu can live on object for a couple days, so remembering to keep practicing good handwashing is a good thing for everyone to practice as a preventative.

On a slightly lighter note, I see that our Secretary of Agriculture (and former Iowa Governor) has implored people to stop calling it swine flu, since it's not solely that and the perception is being formed that somehow comsumption of pork may be dangerous.....I don't see hi making a lot fo headway with that plea, and too bad for the hog farmers, but look for slightly lower prices on ham and bacon (and those tasty summer bratwurst) in the near future.
 

ElliottCarasDad

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Sep 10, 2008
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SusanR68 said:
This is scary! As the cases grow, I'm afraid that this strain is the pandemic that so many have feared. While we haven't had to deal with something like this since 1957 (?), let's just hope our government and officials have properly planned for this scenario.
Seriously, they are fear mongering for media ratings, nothing to see here, move along.
 

zeitgeist

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Oct 8, 2008
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ElliottCarasDad said:
Seriously, they are fear mongering for media ratings, nothing to see here, move along.
Well, I certainly hope so, but the worldwide reaction doesn't seem to bear that out. Unlike when the media cried wolf over avian flu, this one seems to spread with tremendous ease. If government reaction around the world is any indicator, it would seems to be more serious than just a story of opportunity on a slow news day.

For example, Egypt just (stupidly, in my opinion, since it's transmissible from human to human) called for the death of every pig in its borders, governments worldwide are calling for voluntary travel restrictions, and the WHO says that it's gone past the point that there's any hope to contain it.

2009 swine flu outbreak - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

According to that link it has a confirmed presence in:
Mexico
United States
Canada
Spain
United Kingdom
New Zealand
Germany
Israel
Costa Rica
South Korea
Austria

...and is suspected to also be in (but has yet to be confirmed in):
Australia
Colombia
Brazil
Switzerland
France
Chile
Argentina
Norway
Belgium
Honduras
Italy
Poland
El Salvador
Guatemala
Venezuela
Finland
Hong Kong
South Africa
Bolivia
Croatia
Dom. Rep.
Panama
Slovakia
Uruguay


It's only been a matter of weeks.
 

IADad

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Feb 23, 2009
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well Zeitgeist - I don't think anybody is saying it's not qa serious disease, clearly it can be deadly, but the near panic generated by the media is unneccesary.

One thing to consider is our view of world opininon is filtered by the media. Even if you use Wikipedia as a source (and I call it a little suspect for a developing story) the contributors to wikipedia are getting their information from where? Their media.

As for Egypt - calling for the destruction of swine is going to net them what? 5 dead pigs? I mean it's a 90% Muslim country...

What I take away from this is don't put yourself in unnecessary risk, wash those hands and get your rest and let the health officials do their jobs. Remember we had the same hysteria over the avian flu not that long ago....
 

fallon

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Jul 19, 2007
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IADad said:
well Zeitgeist - I don't think anybody is saying it's not qa serious disease, clearly it can be deadly, but the near panic generated by the media is unneccesary.

One thing to consider is our view of world opininon is filtered by the media. Even if you use Wikipedia as a source (and I call it a little suspect for a developing story) the contributors to wikipedia are getting their information from where? Their media.

As for Egypt - calling for the destruction of swine is going to net them what? 5 dead pigs? I mean it's a 90% Muslim country...

What I take away from this is don't put yourself in unnecessary risk, wash those hands and get your rest and let the health officials do their jobs. Remember we had the same hysteria over the avian flu not that long ago....
I couldn't have said it better myself :)
 

zeitgeist

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Oct 8, 2008
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&lt;r&gt;To say that all media is suspect and not to be trusted seems to me to be a little paranoid. Surely there have to be SOME news agencies that are just giving the facts without inflating them.&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;
Wikipedia may be a little suspect for issues of contention or controversy, but the simple data on which countries the flu has reached which it's suspected to be in is there for any to look at it, sources listed. We have to at least be able to agree on &lt;I&gt;&lt;s&gt;<I>&lt;/s&gt;some&lt;e&gt;</I>&lt;/e&gt;&lt;/I&gt; source of information's validity. Are you trying to say that the links I post are invalid because they come from "The Media?" If you're discounting all of the sources that come from news agencies, well, I don't think we'll get very far in this conversation. &lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;
I'll risk it anyway. You have to trust sometime...&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;
Egypt has, according to the story, over 300,000 pigs: &lt;URL url="&lt;/s&gt;The Associated Press: Egypt orders slaughter of all pigs over swine flu&lt;e&gt;&lt;/e&gt;&lt;/URL&gt;&lt;br/&gt;

&lt;QUOTE&gt;&lt;s&gt;
&lt;/s&gt;Egypt began slaughtering the roughly 300,000 pigs in the country Wednesday as a precaution against swine flu even though no cases have been reported here, infuriating farmers who blocked streets and stoned vehicles of Health Ministry workers who came to carry out the government's order.&lt;e&gt;
&lt;/e&gt;&lt;/QUOTE&gt;

Five to 300,000 is a little hard to exaggerate, even for "the media."&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;
I'd be happy as a pig in slop ( &lt;E&gt;:eek:&lt;/E&gt; ) if this was all just a conspiracy by "the media" to scare us into tuning in and the whole thing were to blow over without another death. I just don't see it unfolding that way.&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;
Nonetheless, I'd agree completely with your advice.
&lt;QUOTE&gt;&lt;s&gt;
&lt;/s&gt;What I take away from this is don't put yourself in unnecessary risk, wash those hands and get your rest and let the health officials do their jobs. &lt;e&gt;
&lt;/e&gt;&lt;/QUOTE&gt;
After all, what else is there to do?&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;
But as to the fact that this could be another case of the boy who cried "bird flu..." if it is, it would appear that the WHO has been taken in by the media too.&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;URL url="&lt;/s&gt;WHO Boosts Flu Alert Level to Phase V : NPR&lt;e&gt;&lt;/e&gt;&lt;/URL&gt;&lt;br/&gt;

&lt;QUOTE&gt;&lt;s&gt;
&lt;/s&gt;NPR.org, April 29, 2009 · The World Health Organization increased its pandemic flu alert level Wednesday to Phase V — its second-highest level and a further indication that WHO scientists are seeing human-to-human spread of the virus in at least two countries.&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;
The announcement was made at a WHO news conference Wednesday in Geneva. There are numerous cases of human-to-human transmission in both Mexico and the United States. However, the WHO has until now hesitated to make the leap to Phase V because the cases of transmission within the United States are within tight-knit groups, in particular within schools.&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;
"It really is all of humanity that is under threat during a pandemic," WHO Director General Margaret Chan. "We do not have all the answers right now but we will get them."&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;
"All countries should immediately now activate their pandemic preparedness plans," she said.&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;
WHO official Keiji Fukuda said in news briefings Tuesday and Wednesday that officials were looking for signs that transmission is spreading out to neighborhoods and communities, not just susceptible groups such as schools and nursing homes.&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;
Monday, the WHO increased its alert stage from Phase III — which means that viruses are spreading from animals to people — to Phase IV, which is characterized by some human-to-human transmission.&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;
The step up to Phase V has been considered inevitable, as the number of cases has continued to rise.&lt;e&gt;
&lt;/e&gt;&lt;/QUOTE&gt;&lt;/r&gt;
 

zeitgeist

PF Fiend
Oct 8, 2008
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Re-reading what I just wrote there, I have the feeling that it might come across as belligerent. It's not intended to be. :)